Description of work

Volcano pre-eruptive detection schemes {JR2-3}. Early identification of signs that magma is moving towards the surface, timing of eruption onset, possible transitions in eruptive style, and eruption end are all very important for hazard monitoring and management, but for which automatic detection is generally not trivial. However, seismic tremor results from the FUTUREVOLC project suggest that certain characteristic changes are observed when magma moves near the surface. Furthermore infrasound arrays can detect when the eruptive vent opens to the atmosphere and magma arrives on the surface. Joint, real-time analysis and correlation of seismic and infrasound signals can provide a means for pre-eruptive early warning. Automatic algorithms for correlating such signals are to be generated and implemented.

Integrated modelling of pre-eruption data {JR3.1}. Real-time monitoring of seismic, deformation and volatile emission/geochemical data is a major element of VO infrastructure. In the long term, these signals can indicate charging of a magmatic system. In the short term, they can track migration of magma toward the surface prior to eruption. However, simple independent interpretations based on each of the three data types often point to different scenarios. Modelling of data, separately or jointly, can lead to a more consistent understanding, but typically this is not achieved in real time. To better interpret all three data types rapidly and in a joined -up manner, different approaches will investigated for interpreting all of the data together, in near real time. Data from previous eruptions will be used as case studies to test the different approaches, and propose best practices for the different scenarios.

Integration of petrological and real-time monitoring data {JR3.2}. Integrating petrological results with real-time geophysical and gas emissions data is extremely challenging, because we lack a common numerical modelling framework integrating petrological and magma flow processes. Magma ascent models which include petrological and magma ascent processes together with cutting-edge petrological analyses will be used to constrain geometry and timescales of storage in order to reconcile these datasets. This will be a major step in improving the quality of interpretation of VO data to produce higher confidence policy decisions regarding mitigation and crisis management.